Andrew Villeneuve, in the “Cure to Congestion” column (July 29) makes unsupportable claims that light rail will “cut through gridlock” and “cure congestion.” His analysis should not stand uncontested. Actually, congestion will increase with or without light rail. Further, he calls for diverting funding for I-405 improvements to “strengthening our ferry system.” Not accommodating traffic growth in east King county is a recipe to increase congestion.
The Puget Sound Regional Council has studied transportation in the region for many years. One report that contains good technical data from modeling travel is the 2001 MTP (Metropolitan Transportation Plan) Baseline Technical Report, June 2000. The plan contains improvements to both highway and transit (including light rail) to serve a four-county region that will grow from about 3.5 million people today to 4.2 million in 2020 and 4.7 million in 2030. Table 14 of that report shows that VMT (vehicle miles of travel) will increase by 50 percent from 1998 to 2030, average speed will drop 10 percent, and hours of delay (congestion) will increase 200 per cent. In King County the hours of delay will increase 200 per cent in 2020 and 250 per cent in 2030. In East King County, the hours of delay will increase 307 percent in the PM peak period in 2030. Meanwhile, the transit mode share in east King County will grow from about 1 percent in 1998 to 1.5 percent in 2020 to 2 percent in 2030. The 2 percent number is 50,000 transit trips of 2.6 million total trips in east King County.
Two things Villeneuve needs to realize. First, transit share of trips is small and doubling or tripling ridership will not decrease congestion much, and much of light rail ridership will be diversion from buses. Second, investments in roads and transit is not keeping pace with population growth. Congestion will increase whatever the mix of investment in roads and transit.
Nevertheless, voters have approved expanding light rail. Like Villeneuve, most voters are willing to invest in light rail that they will not use but hope others will. Light rail provides a sparse network in comparison to the bus system or highway system. Light rail will not serve Kirkland and it will provide service for only one-third of Bellevue, 10 square miles of the 30.7 square miles total land area of Bellevue. Villeneuve needs to scale back expectations for light rail.
Ken Dueker, Kirkland
